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ที่นอนเป่าลมสำหรับรถยนต์

ที่ผ่านมากู้เงินเข้ามาสูงกว่าส่วนของผู้ถือหุ้นหลายที่นอนในรถ เท่านัก พอเราดูเท่านี้ก็จบแล้ว คือหุ้นด้วนี้มีความเสี่ยง สูงมาก ไม่ควรเข้าไปลงทุนเป็นล้นขาด...

ต่อมา เราก็มาลูเงินปนผล สังเกตได้ว่าไม่มีปนิผลมา 3-4 ปีแล้ว.. เงินปนผลนั้น ปกติก็คือจะ ปนัผลจากกำไร ถ้าบริษัทไม่มีกำไร หรือกำไรไม่มากพอ ก็จะปนผลไม่ได้ ด้งนั้นหุ้นด้วนี้ เป็นกิจการที่ ไม่โต มีการประกอบการที่ไม่สมํ่าเสมอ อาจจะมีบางปีที่มีผลประกอบการที่ดี แต่ในระยะยาว เราอาจจะนอนไม่หสับเลยหากเรามาซื้อหุ้นด้วนี้..
ยิ่งพอเรามาลูมูลค่าทางษัญชีต่อหุ้น มูลค่าทางษัญชีต่อหุ้นในช่วง 5 ปีที่ผ่านมา ลดลงอย่าง ต่อเนื่องเลยทีเดียวจาก 5.32บาทต่อหุ้นในปี2551เบาะนอนในรถ เหลือเพียง2.62บาทต่อหุ้นในษัเจุษันสับ ก้อนหนี้ ที่เพิ่มขึ้นอีกมหาศาล

ผมให้เทคนิคในการดูความเข้มแข็งของกิจการอีกสักนิดหนึ่งนะครับ.. ถ้าเราสังเกตดู เราจะพบว่าการก่อหนี้ของกิจการนันจะมีอยู่ 2 ประเภทเท่านั้นล่ะ ประเภทแรก คือ ก่อหนี้มาเพื่อการ ลงทุน ซึ่งหนี้นันจะเพิ่มขึ้นมาแบบมีรูปแบบ มีแบบแผน และมีกำหนดระยะเวลาที่จะคืนทุนแน่นอน ซึ่งเมื่อถึงจุดๆ หนึ่ง หนี้สินนันจะเริ่มลดลง (เริ่มคืนทุน) จากกำไรที่สูงขึ้นซึ่งมาจากการลงทุนใหม่ๆ แต่ ประการที่สอง คือการก่อที่นอนเป่าลม ในรถยนต์ หนี้มาเพื่ออุ้มกิจการ หมายความว่ากิจการมีนกำสังแย่ คือลูกผีลูกคน หนี้ที่เกิดขึ้นก็จะเป็นสักษณะของการมาแบบไม่รู้เนี้อรู้ด้ว ไม่มีแผนการลงทุน มาเป็นก้อนแบบต่อเนื่อง และมาแบบถาโถมจนเรารู้สึกได้ว่ามีนแปลกๆ คิดว่าหุ้นด้วนี้ก่อหนี้ขึ้นมาแบบประเภทไหนสันล่ะครับ..

แล้วทำไมผมถึงเอาหุ้นด้วนี้มายกด้วอย่างให้ดูล่ะ ที่ผมยกด้วอย่างให้ดู เพราะหุ้นด้วนี้ P/BV ตํ่ามาก ซึ่งเมื่อเราพยายามหาหุ้น P/BV ตํ่า เราก็อาจจะมาเจอหุ้นด้วนี้ก็เป็นได้ ซึ่งบางคนหากมาเจอสับ หุ้นด้วนี้ในปี 2553 ซึ่งเป็นปีที่หุ้นด้วนี้พลิกกสับมามีกำไรสูงมาก เราก็อาจจะคิดว่า “หรือว่ากิจการนัน กำสังจะฟืนแล้ว” แล้วเราก็เข้าซื้อมีนไป ซึ่งปีถ้ดไปคือ ปี 2554 มีการทำราคาของหุ้นขึ้นไปถึง 2.30 บาท แต่ในปจัจุษัน มีนก็ตกกล้บมาเหลือเพียงแค่ 1.31 บาท (ที่งๆ ที่ในปี 2554 ถ้ามีนราคาอยู่ที่ 2.30 บาท ก็ย่งมี P/BV เพียง 0.88 เท่า) ซึ่งการเข้าใจผิดในสักษณะล่าล้ญของกิจการเกิดขึ้นได้เสมอ ด้งนั้นเราจึงต้องมาลูรายละเอียดของงบการเงินที่เจาะลึกมากขึ้น..

ทีนี้เราก็ต้องเอางบดุลฉษับย่อมาลูสัน ไปลูข้อมูลสินทรัพย์สันก่อนที่ STOCK 2 - assetเบาะลมในรถ (ข้อมูลพวกนี้มีที่งหมดใน website ของตลาดหสักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทยนะครับ)

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